ROSS NORMAN - OUTLANDISH FORECASTS FOR 2026
ROSS NORMAN – METALS DAILY / LONDON
2026 LBMA Precious Metals Forecast
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GOLD : Average: $5375
High : $6400
Low : $4350
If the rules-based global order—and the correlations that normally make events broadly predictable—are breaking down, then viewed through a geopolitical and economic lens, the rising gold price starts to make sense. This is not a speculatively fueled rally but a move by a narrow group of players hunting for life jackets. It lacks panic and instead reflects a steady, determined, high-conviction effort by well-informed actors.
Shifting Role of Gold
Gold and commodities more broadly are being priced less as mere alternatives or portfolio diversifiers and more as strategic assets with an economic imperative. Gold fits the broader narrative both as a tally of value and as the ultimate store in a world where trust is in sharp decline, playing its role as an “asset of last resort.”
Supercycle Evidence
Epic price action—and the wide range of commodities hitting all-time highs—in 2024 and 2025 confirmed a commodities supercycle, with 2026 poised as a continuation year. International law increasingly yields to the law of the jungle; if markets struggled with policy uncertainty last year, 2026 will amplify it. Securing gold reserves thus expresses success in achieving independence amid an emerging resource war, where price matters less than accumulation for official buyers.
Central Bank Motivations
The head of the World Gold Council points to official-sector buying driven primarily by fears that advanced economies may be entering a point of no return in a debt spiral. Most remain blissfully unaware beyond record-high tax burdens and gripes about public finances; the reality is prosaic—we are running out of money. Central banks sense this, making gold acquisition their only option, with price a secondary concern.
Market Strain
Beyond unreported central bank buying, the physical coins and bars market in the West is “off the scale,” with dealers reporting stock shortages. Phones ring off the hook from hopeful investors, and orderly early-morning queues form outside dealerships. Bullion dealers’ credit facilities, denominated in currency, now support half the metal volume after gold prices roughly doubled, while lease fees on borrowings have spiked amid tight conditions—it’s not all sunshine.
Having placed second in this forecasting competition for three straight years, frustration does not cloud the view; these forecasts may seem outlandish but represent realistic possibilities. Reading this again reveals imperfect articulation—you’d need to grasp foreboding as a visceral sign that something is amiss, a hard-to-elaborate sense. Not compelling, perhaps.
With a 28-year forecasting record strong at epic market pivots—perhaps due to a nose for problems or freedom from bank caution—these figures will likely stand as outliers in the full LBMA forecasts. Dire predictions, yes, but one I hope to be wrong—this is a forecast worth losing. Apocalyptic - no - dangerous - yes.
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SILVER : Average: $122.00
High : $165.00
Low : $72.00
Silver no longer serves merely as a surrogate for gold; it has stepped decisively out of its shadow, propelled by significant upcoming demand across emerging applications—particularly solid-state batteries. Industrial consumption has exceeded mine supply for five consecutive years, while declining liquidity has driven prices to record highs.
Tight Supply Ahead
News that the roughly 27 Chinese London Good Delivery silver refineries may limit exports will likely keep prices elevated and markets tight in 2026. Silver’s addition to the U.S. critical minerals list highlights its strategic role in civil and military applications, especially for the green energy transition and digital transformation over the next decade.
Strategic Repositioning
Silver is being repriced not just as a commodity with strong fundamentals, but as table stakes in a resource war—particularly between the U.S. and China—where global economic hegemony hangs in the balance.
Market Surprise
Many failed to anticipate this shift; the rally has largely bypassed U.S. speculators, while institutional investors entered late and tentatively, as if gripped by disbelief among traditional players.
Countervailing Forces
A potential mitigating factor is thrifting in the photovoltaic sector, which might at best slow what could otherwise become runaway prices. An overhang of metal in New York—shipped there ahead of expected tariffs—has reduced the free float. Even so, the margin for error in price forecasting remains wide in this uncertain market.
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PLATINUM : Average: $2676
High : $3250
Low : $2150
A growing sense indicates we have entered a new geopolitical paradigm, as the West and East vie for economic hegemony—a contest likely to play out through commodity prices. With persistent economic policy uncertainty amplified by supply vulnerabilities, hoarding will continue, supporting robust prices and transitioning platinum from a niche precious metal to a strategic asset in a resource war.
Key Supply Dynamics
Platinum faces narrow supply constraints coupled with broad industrial applications, placing it under special focus. Positive factors include Europe’s rollback of internal combustion engine phase-outs, the elimination of U.S. tax credits for electric vehicles, and tightening emissions standards—all driving higher automotive loadings.
Emerging Demand
Domestic Chinese speculation and retail interest will likely rise following the launch of platinum contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange.
While the heady 160% gains of 2025 are unlikely to repeat, fresh record highs remain probable, though with moderating increases as the market shifts from deficit toward balance.
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PALLADIUM : Average: $2132
High : $2650
Low : $1600
Palladium exhibits whipsaw price action near three-year highs, reflecting volatility in demand expectations amplified by supply vulnerabilities.
Policy Support
The European Commission’s recent proposal softens the 2035 internal combustion engine ban, allowing vehicles with at least 90% emission reductions—primarily gasoline and hybrid models—to be sold beyond 2035. This shift directly bolsters sustained demand for palladium, a key metal in catalytic converters for gasoline and hybrid vehicles.
Demand Outlook
By extending the operational life and market relevance of internal combustion and hybrid technologies—coupled with expectations of higher metal loadings—this policy change will underpin palladium demand well into the 2030s.
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Ross Norman
CEO
MetalsDaily.com
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